MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins, April 27th

Now that’s how to respond following a win-streak-snapping loss. We came right back with a smooth-sailing Rangers-Giants Under bet victory yesterday, and hopefully, there’s more of a new streak continuing this afternoon in the early Sunday window. 

One of those five games kicking things off at approximately 1:40 p.m. EST will be the series finale at Target Field, where the Minnesota Twins are hosting the Los Angeles Angels and vying for a sweep after being triumphant in the first two contests. 

Yeah, maybe not as thrilling as the Minnesota Timberwolves-Los Angeles Lakers NBA playoff series, but it could be a matchup that provides more potential to profit based on the starting pitching matchup. 

Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins, and normally, that’s a good thing for the American League Central residents. The right-hander otherwise known as Joe-lan Ryan (at least to me) has basically been as steady as any starter since first debuting four years ago, and fortunately, it appears he’s propelled past the shoulder injury that shelved him the last several weeks of the 2024 campaign.  

There was definitely some concern entering spring training and, subsequently, the current season, about if Ryan could return to his previous consistent form – the one that had logged 25 consecutive starts of pitching into the sixth inning or deeper prior to getting hurt and the one that has simply been consistently good every year of his career. 

Hence why the 28-year-old composed a 33-26 record to go with a 3.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10 strikeouts per nine innings across his first four big-league seasons. 

Well, although Ryan is throwing a tick off from his usual fastball velocity, he’s still producing solid work five starts in. The strikeout rate is still more than one an inning at 9.3 K/9, and in the process, he’s limiting opposing batters to a .228 average. Ryan’s command has been pinpoint- accurate, with only three walks in 27 total innings, and that walk rate of one per nine innings would be by far his best such mark at this level if he finishes around there. 

Although the former Tampa Bay Ray farmhand got pelted for six runs in his most recent outing, that’s all the more reason to back him in the ensuing assignment. Through 89 MLB starts, Ryan has never allowed more than four runs in back-to-back games, and given his aforementioned consistency, I like trusting him in this spot. 

It’s also a favorable matchup for Ryan seeing as how the Angels are tied for the seventh fewest runs scored in all of baseball. And along with that tendency, the Halos are also without two fairly dangerous regulars (Jorge Soler and Nolan Schanuel) in the starting lineup for Sunday. 

Missing key lumber can be a point of emphasis for the other side as well. In Minnesota’s batting order, they’re without Royce Lewis, Matt Walner, Willi Castro and Luke Keaschall due to injury and Byron Buxton is getting the afternoon off. 

 That all could be of assistance to Jose Soriano, who is more than capable of handling this version of the Twins offense. Dead bat Mickey Gasper, for instance, is probably one of the least intimidating hitters to serve in the No. 5 hole in a game this season. Overall, they’re one of 10 clubs in baseball – like the Angels – to be averaging fewer than four runs per game. 

Soriano has been a bit erratic so far in his five starts but I predict more consistency will be on display from the hard-throwing righty much sooner than later. If you take a glance at the type of contact he’s drawing, Soriano’s garnered some very encouraging percentages. The line-drive rate (17.6%) and fly-ball rate (18.8%) are both lower than they’ve ever been, and in addition, he’s inducing more ground balls (63.5%) than previously, too. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-115, DraftKings)  

2025 MLB Betting Record: 19-16-1, +0.19 unit 

Over/Unders: 17-11-1 

Props: 2-4 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Giants Under 8 (WIN) 

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated. 

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